For the past three years, if you wanted to buy commercial real estate in Sevier County, you had to move fast and pay asking price. That is starting to change. We are seeing the early stages of a market shift, and buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines should start paying attention.

The numbers tell the story. Active commercial listings across Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and Gatlinburg are up roughly 18% from this time last year. Days on market have climbed from the low 70s to the mid-90s. That does not sound like a lot, but in a market where properties used to go under contract in a week, three months feels like a different world.

What is driving the shift? Interest rates are the obvious culprit. With the Fed holding at 3.50% to 3.75% and no cuts expected until late 2026 at earliest, borrowing costs are keeping some buyers on the sidelines. Sellers who bought at 4% cap rates and planned to refi into cheaper debt are stuck. Some are deciding to sell instead of hold, adding inventory.

The STR saturation is another factor. Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg have thousands of short-term rental units, and the market is no longer absorbing new supply at the same pace. Buyers are underwriting to actuals now, not pro forma projections. That means properties with weak revenue data are sitting longer, and sellers with inflated expectations are having to adjust.

Here is the opportunity: not everything is soft. Parkway corridor retail with strong tenant history is still moving quickly. Multifamily in Knoxville continues to see institutional interest. And off-market deals, because they never hit the public inventory numbers, are still competitive.

My read on this market: we are not crashing. We are normalizing. If you have cash or pre-approved financing, the next six months could be the best buying window since 2021. If you are a seller, price aggressively and be prepared to negotiate. The days of multiple offers above asking are behind us for now.